U.S. Net Farm Income in 2024 is Forecast 4.4% Down from Last Year

U.S. Net Farm Income in 2024 is Forecast 4.4% Down from Last Year

By S. Patricia Batres-Marquez, Senior Research Analyst, Decision Innovation Solutions

According to the USDA’s September release of the 2024 farm income data, the U.S. net farm income value (in nominal terms) would fall 4.4% to $140.0 billion year-over-year and down about 23% from the record-high estimate in 2022 (see Figure 1). Net farm income adjusted for inflation (real terms) would be down by $10.2 billion compared with the previous year. 

The 2024 net cash income is forecast at $154.1 billion, down $12.0 billion from 2023 ($166.1 billion). The value of net cash income adjusted for inflation is forecast to fall by $16.3 billion (5.8%) relative to the previous year.

Despite the projected declines, these forecasts indicate that net farm income and net cash farm income would increase in 2024 compared with their 20-year averages (inflation-adjusted dollars). The 20-year average for net farm income and for net cash farm income are $121.5 billion and $145.12 billion, respectively.

Figure 1. U.S. Net Farm Income & Net Cash Farm Income

U.S. cash receipts in 2024 are forecast at $516.5 billion, down $9.8 billion (1.9%) from 2023 (Figure 2). Crop cash receipts in 2024 would make up 48% of total cash receipts and are forecast to be $249.0 billion, down $27.7 billion (10.0%) year-over-year reflecting lower receipts for corn and soybeans (see Table 1 and Figure 3). 

According to USDA, lower forecast prices offset higher quantities sold in 2024 for corn and soybeans. On the other hand, animal product cash receipts in 2024 are projected to increase by 7.1% to $267.4 billion from the 2023 estimate ($249.6 billion). Animal and animal product cash receipts are expected to increase, including receipts for cattle and calves, chicken eggs, dairy products (milk), broilers, and hogs (Table 1 and Figure 3). 

Cash receipts from cattle and calves, chicken eggs, and milk are forecast to increase due to expected higher prices. For hogs, higher expected selling quantities are driving the increase in cash receipts this year. Receipts from turkeys are expected to drop 41.5% from the 2023 estimate as USDA forecasts lower prices and quantities sold in 2024 (see Table 1). 

Figure 2. U.S. Cash Receipts

Table 1. U.S. Cash Receipts, Selected Commodities (Billion Dollars, Nominal)

Figure 3. 2024 U.S. Expected Y-O-Y Change in Cash Receipt Value, Selected Crops

USDA will publish two more farm income forecasts 2024 (Dec 2024 and Feb 2025), which may modify current estimates for 2024.