By Paige Klipstein, Research Analyst
Egg prices are a trending headline nationwide. Some grocery stores are responding by limiting the number of cartons customers can buy, while other retailers are displaying near-empty refrigerated shelves.
The spread and resurgence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), a highly contagious and deadly virus for chickens and other poultry, has impacted millions of birds and flocks in all 50 states. This virus has wreaked havoc on both commercial and backyard producers. To date, the virus has infected nearly 108 million commercial table egg layers, which is over 27% of the national layer flock, and this number is still climbing weekly.
HPAI has had a significant impact on the price of eggs, and consumers around the country are taking notice. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported a nearly 14% increase in the cost of grade A large eggs from November to December. From January to December of 2024, there was an almost 64% increase in cost. Back in January of 2023, the highest price per dozen consumers have seen was at $4.82/dozen. Since the start of the outbreak in February 2022, the cheapest price occurred in the same month.
Reduced supply of commercial laying hens has occurred at times throughout the last 3 years, causing egg prices to increase twofold within a single month. Figure 1 illustrates that from April of 2016, prior to the HPAI outbreak, egg prices were around $1.79/dozen and, except for two months, remained below $2/dozen until the initial outbreak in early 2022. Following the outbreak and loss of millions of laying hens, egg prices have approached $4.50/dozen.
Figure 1: Average Egg Prices (grade A, large) since January 2015
The current outbreak has affected over 130 million commercial birds in 682 commercial flocks. The deadly nature of this virus causes entire flocks to be culled, which has a devastating impact on eggs and laying hen supply chains across the country.
Figure 2: Comparison of egg prices to the number of commercial table layers affected since the outbreak
The USDA Poultry and Eggs Market Outlook for January 2025 recently adjusted table egg layer production down amid the loss of commercial table layers due to HPAI. The report also adjusted egg prices upwards based on similar reduced supply projections. The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) expect egg prices to drop significantly in the second quarter of the year, but current trends of increasing HPAI cases may indicate that lower egg prices are not on the horizon just yet.
Subscribe to our Newsletter
